development of hypothesis ppt

2.4 Developing a Hypothesis

Learning objectives.

• Distinguish between a theory and a hypothesis.
• Discover how theories are used to generate hypotheses and how the results of studies can be used to further inform theories.
• Understand the characteristics of a good hypothesis.

Theories and Hypotheses

Before describing how to develop a hypothesis it is imporant to distinguish betwee a theory and a hypothesis. A  theory  is a coherent explanation or interpretation of one or more phenomena. Although theories can take a variety of forms, one thing they have in common is that they go beyond the phenomena they explain by including variables, structures, processes, functions, or organizing principles that have not been observed directly. Consider, for example, Zajonc’s theory of social facilitation and social inhibition. He proposed that being watched by others while performing a task creates a general state of physiological arousal, which increases the likelihood of the dominant (most likely) response. So for highly practiced tasks, being watched increases the tendency to make correct responses, but for relatively unpracticed tasks, being watched increases the tendency to make incorrect responses. Notice that this theory—which has come to be called drive theory—provides an explanation of both social facilitation and social inhibition that goes beyond the phenomena themselves by including concepts such as “arousal” and “dominant response,” along with processes such as the effect of arousal on the dominant response.

Outside of science, referring to an idea as a theory often implies that it is untested—perhaps no more than a wild guess. In science, however, the term theory has no such implication. A theory is simply an explanation or interpretation of a set of phenomena. It can be untested, but it can also be extensively tested, well supported, and accepted as an accurate description of the world by the scientific community. The theory of evolution by natural selection, for example, is a theory because it is an explanation of the diversity of life on earth—not because it is untested or unsupported by scientific research. On the contrary, the evidence for this theory is overwhelmingly positive and nearly all scientists accept its basic assumptions as accurate. Similarly, the “germ theory” of disease is a theory because it is an explanation of the origin of various diseases, not because there is any doubt that many diseases are caused by microorganisms that infect the body.

A  hypothesis , on the other hand, is a specific prediction about a new phenomenon that should be observed if a particular theory is accurate. It is an explanation that relies on just a few key concepts. Hypotheses are often specific predictions about what will happen in a particular study. They are developed by considering existing evidence and using reasoning to infer what will happen in the specific context of interest. Hypotheses are often but not always derived from theories. So a hypothesis is often a prediction based on a theory but some hypotheses are a-theoretical and only after a set of observations have been made, is a theory developed. This is because theories are broad in nature and they explain larger bodies of data. So if our research question is really original then we may need to collect some data and make some observation before we can develop a broader theory.

Theories and hypotheses always have this  if-then  relationship. “ If   drive theory is correct,  then  cockroaches should run through a straight runway faster, and a branching runway more slowly, when other cockroaches are present.” Although hypotheses are usually expressed as statements, they can always be rephrased as questions. “Do cockroaches run through a straight runway faster when other cockroaches are present?” Thus deriving hypotheses from theories is an excellent way of generating interesting research questions.

But how do researchers derive hypotheses from theories? One way is to generate a research question using the techniques discussed in this chapter  and then ask whether any theory implies an answer to that question. For example, you might wonder whether expressive writing about positive experiences improves health as much as expressive writing about traumatic experiences. Although this  question  is an interesting one  on its own, you might then ask whether the habituation theory—the idea that expressive writing causes people to habituate to negative thoughts and feelings—implies an answer. In this case, it seems clear that if the habituation theory is correct, then expressive writing about positive experiences should not be effective because it would not cause people to habituate to negative thoughts and feelings. A second way to derive hypotheses from theories is to focus on some component of the theory that has not yet been directly observed. For example, a researcher could focus on the process of habituation—perhaps hypothesizing that people should show fewer signs of emotional distress with each new writing session.

Among the very best hypotheses are those that distinguish between competing theories. For example, Norbert Schwarz and his colleagues considered two theories of how people make judgments about themselves, such as how assertive they are (Schwarz et al., 1991) [1] . Both theories held that such judgments are based on relevant examples that people bring to mind. However, one theory was that people base their judgments on the  number  of examples they bring to mind and the other was that people base their judgments on how  easily  they bring those examples to mind. To test these theories, the researchers asked people to recall either six times when they were assertive (which is easy for most people) or 12 times (which is difficult for most people). Then they asked them to judge their own assertiveness. Note that the number-of-examples theory implies that people who recalled 12 examples should judge themselves to be more assertive because they recalled more examples, but the ease-of-examples theory implies that participants who recalled six examples should judge themselves as more assertive because recalling the examples was easier. Thus the two theories made opposite predictions so that only one of the predictions could be confirmed. The surprising result was that participants who recalled fewer examples judged themselves to be more assertive—providing particularly convincing evidence in favor of the ease-of-retrieval theory over the number-of-examples theory.

Theory Testing

The primary way that scientific researchers use theories is sometimes called the hypothetico-deductive method  (although this term is much more likely to be used by philosophers of science than by scientists themselves). A researcher begins with a set of phenomena and either constructs a theory to explain or interpret them or chooses an existing theory to work with. He or she then makes a prediction about some new phenomenon that should be observed if the theory is correct. Again, this prediction is called a hypothesis. The researcher then conducts an empirical study to test the hypothesis. Finally, he or she reevaluates the theory in light of the new results and revises it if necessary. This process is usually conceptualized as a cycle because the researcher can then derive a new hypothesis from the revised theory, conduct a new empirical study to test the hypothesis, and so on. As  Figure 2.2  shows, this approach meshes nicely with the model of scientific research in psychology presented earlier in the textbook—creating a more detailed model of “theoretically motivated” or “theory-driven” research.

Figure 2.2 Hypothetico-Deductive Method Combined With the General Model of Scientific Research in Psychology Together they form a model of theoretically motivated research.

As an example, let us consider Zajonc’s research on social facilitation and inhibition. He started with a somewhat contradictory pattern of results from the research literature. He then constructed his drive theory, according to which being watched by others while performing a task causes physiological arousal, which increases an organism’s tendency to make the dominant response. This theory predicts social facilitation for well-learned tasks and social inhibition for poorly learned tasks. He now had a theory that organized previous results in a meaningful way—but he still needed to test it. He hypothesized that if his theory was correct, he should observe that the presence of others improves performance in a simple laboratory task but inhibits performance in a difficult version of the very same laboratory task. To test this hypothesis, one of the studies he conducted used cockroaches as subjects (Zajonc, Heingartner, & Herman, 1969) [2] . The cockroaches ran either down a straight runway (an easy task for a cockroach) or through a cross-shaped maze (a difficult task for a cockroach) to escape into a dark chamber when a light was shined on them. They did this either while alone or in the presence of other cockroaches in clear plastic “audience boxes.” Zajonc found that cockroaches in the straight runway reached their goal more quickly in the presence of other cockroaches, but cockroaches in the cross-shaped maze reached their goal more slowly when they were in the presence of other cockroaches. Thus he confirmed his hypothesis and provided support for his drive theory. (Zajonc also showed that drive theory existed in humans (Zajonc & Sales, 1966) [3] in many other studies afterward).

Incorporating Theory into Your Research

When you write your research report or plan your presentation, be aware that there are two basic ways that researchers usually include theory. The first is to raise a research question, answer that question by conducting a new study, and then offer one or more theories (usually more) to explain or interpret the results. This format works well for applied research questions and for research questions that existing theories do not address. The second way is to describe one or more existing theories, derive a hypothesis from one of those theories, test the hypothesis in a new study, and finally reevaluate the theory. This format works well when there is an existing theory that addresses the research question—especially if the resulting hypothesis is surprising or conflicts with a hypothesis derived from a different theory.

To use theories in your research will not only give you guidance in coming up with experiment ideas and possible projects, but it lends legitimacy to your work. Psychologists have been interested in a variety of human behaviors and have developed many theories along the way. Using established theories will help you break new ground as a researcher, not limit you from developing your own ideas.

Characteristics of a Good Hypothesis

There are three general characteristics of a good hypothesis. First, a good hypothesis must be testable and falsifiable . We must be able to test the hypothesis using the methods of science and if you’ll recall Popper’s falsifiability criterion, it must be possible to gather evidence that will disconfirm the hypothesis if it is indeed false. Second, a good hypothesis must be  logical. As described above, hypotheses are more than just a random guess. Hypotheses should be informed by previous theories or observations and logical reasoning. Typically, we begin with a broad and general theory and use  deductive reasoning to generate a more specific hypothesis to test based on that theory. Occasionally, however, when there is no theory to inform our hypothesis, we use  inductive reasoning  which involves using specific observations or research findings to form a more general hypothesis. Finally, the hypothesis should be  positive.  That is, the hypothesis should make a positive statement about the existence of a relationship or effect, rather than a statement that a relationship or effect does not exist. As scientists, we don’t set out to show that relationships do not exist or that effects do not occur so our hypotheses should not be worded in a way to suggest that an effect or relationship does not exist. The nature of science is to assume that something does not exist and then seek to find evidence to prove this wrong, to show that really it does exist. That may seem backward to you but that is the nature of the scientific method. The underlying reason for this is beyond the scope of this chapter but it has to do with statistical theory.

Key Takeaways

• A theory is broad in nature and explains larger bodies of data. A hypothesis is more specific and makes a prediction about the outcome of a particular study.
• Working with theories is not “icing on the cake.” It is a basic ingredient of psychological research.
• Like other scientists, psychologists use the hypothetico-deductive method. They construct theories to explain or interpret phenomena (or work with existing theories), derive hypotheses from their theories, test the hypotheses, and then reevaluate the theories in light of the new results.
• Practice: Find a recent empirical research report in a professional journal. Read the introduction and highlight in different colors descriptions of theories and hypotheses.
• Schwarz, N., Bless, H., Strack, F., Klumpp, G., Rittenauer-Schatka, H., & Simons, A. (1991). Ease of retrieval as information: Another look at the availability heuristic.  Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 61 , 195–202. ↵
• Zajonc, R. B., Heingartner, A., & Herman, E. M. (1969). Social enhancement and impairment of performance in the cockroach.  Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 13 , 83–92. ↵
• Zajonc, R.B. & Sales, S.M. (1966). Social facilitation of dominant and subordinate responses. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 2 , 160-168. ↵

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Formulation of hypothesis and testing

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THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK HYPOTHESIS DEVELOPMENT

Jan 07, 2020

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THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK HYPOTHESIS DEVELOPMENT. The Research Process. Variables. Independent variables Dependent variables

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THEORETICAL FRAMEWORKHYPOTHESIS DEVELOPMENT

The Research Process

Variables • Independent variables • Dependent variables • Moderating variables: a second independent variable that is included because it is believed to have significant contributory or contingent effect on the originally stated IV-DV relationship

Variables (Cont’d) • Extraneous variables • Infinite number of variables has little or no effect on a given situation can be safely ignored • Extraneous variables as the control

Variables (Cont’d) • Intervening variables: the factor which theoretically affects the observed phenomenon but cannot be seen, measured, or manipulated; its effect must be inferred from the effects of the independent and moderator variables on the observed phenomenon

Theoretical Framework • Theoretical framework is the foundation on which the entire research project is based • Logically developed, described, and elaborated network of association among the variables deemed relevant to the problem situation and identified through such processes as interviews, observations, and literature survey. • Experience and intuition

Theoretical Framework (Cont’d) • 5 basic features that should be incorporated in any theoretical framework: • Variables considered relevant to the study should be clearly identified and labeled in the discussions • The discussions should state how two or more variables are related to one another

Theoretical Framework (Cont’d) • 5 basic features that should be incorporated in any theoretical framework (Cont’d): • There should be an indication in the discussions as to whether the relationships would be positive or negative • There should be a clear explanation of why we would expect these relationships to exist • A schematic diagram should be given so that the reader can see and easily comprehend the theorized relationships

Hypotheses Development • Hypothesis: a logically conjectured relationship between two or more variables expressed in the form of a testable statement • Formulating such testable statement is called hypotheses development

Hypotheses Development (Cont’d) • Statement of hypotheses: Formats • If-Then statement • Directional and nondirectional hypotheses • Null and alternate hypotheses • Null hypothesis: expressed as no (significant) relationship between two variables or no (significant) difference between two groups • Alternate hypothesis: statement expressing a relationship between two variables or indicating differences between groups

Hypotheses Testing • Steps to be followed in hypothesis testing: • State the null and alternate hypotheses • Choose the appropriate statistical test depending whether the data collected are parametric or nonparametric • Determine the level of significance desired • See if the output results indicate that the significance level is met • When the resultant value > critical value, the null hypothesis is rejected and the alternate is accepted. If calculated value < critical value, the null is accepted and the alternate rejected

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RESEARCH HYPOTHESIS - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

RESEARCH HYPOTHESIS

Hypothesis should be testable & should not be a moral judgment. ... for example, roy s adaptation model is used in a research study, ... – powerpoint ppt presentation.

• A hypothesis is a formal tentative statement of the expected relationship between two or more variables under study.
• A hypothesis helps to translate the research problem objectives into a clear explanation or prediction of the expected results or outcomes of the research study.
• A clearly stated hypothesis includes the variables to be manipulated or measured, identifies the population to be examined, indicates the proposed outcome for the study.
• Hypothesis is a tentative prediction or explanation of the relationship between two variables. It implies that there is a systematic relationship between an independent a dependent variable.
• For example, dietary compliance will be greater in diabetic patients receiving diet instruction in small groups than in diabetic patients receiving individualized diet instructions.
• Good Hatt define hypothesis as a shrewd guess or inference that is formulated provisionally adopted to explain observed facts or conditions to guide in further investigation.
• Hypotheses enables the researcher to objectively investigate new areas of discovery. Thus , it provides a powerful tool for the advancement of knowledge.
• Hypotheses provides objectivity to the research activity.
• It also provides directions to conduct research such as defining the sources relevance of data.
• Hypotheses provides clear specific goals to the researchers. These clear specific goals provide the investigator with a basis for selecting sample research procedures to meet these goals.
• Hypotheses provides link between theories actual practical research.
• It provides a bridge between theory reality.
• A hypothesis suggests which type of research is likely to be most appropriate.
• As it is a tentative statement of anticipated results, it guides the researcher towards the direction in which the research should proceed.
• It stimulates the thinking process of researcher as the researcher forms the hypothesis by anticipating the outcome.
• It also determines the most appropriate research designs techniques of data analysis.
• Hypotheses provides understanding to the researchers about what expect from the results of the research study.
• It serves as framework for drawing conclusions of a research study.
• Without hypotheses, research would be like aimless wandering.
• Conceptual clarity
• Hypothesis should consist of clearly defined understandable concepts. It should be stated in very terms, the meaning implication of which cannot be doubted. To facilitate the conceptual clarity, hypothesis can be stated in declarative statement, in present tense.
• Empirical referents
• Research must have an ultimate empirical referent. No usable hypothesis can embody moral judgments. A good hypothesis must have empirical basis from the area of enquiry.
• Objectivity
• Hypothesis must be objective, which facilitates objectivity in data collection keeps the research activity free from researcher value - judgment.
• Specificity
• It should be specific, not general, should explain the expected relations between variables. For example, regular yoga reduces stress.
• The hypothesis should be relevant to the problem being studied as well as the objectives of the study. Hypothesis must have relevance with theory under test in a research process.
• Testability
• Hypothesis should be testable should not be a moral judgment. It must be directly/indirectly observable measurable. The researcher can set up a situation that permits one to assess if it is true or false. It must be verifiable. For example, a statement such as bad partners produce bad children. This sort of hypothesis cannot be tested.
• Consistency
• A hypothesis should be consistent with an existing body of theories, research findings, other hypotheses. It should correspond with existing knowledge.
• A hypothesis should be formulated in simple understandable terms. It should require fewer conditions assumptions.
• Availability of techniques
• The researchers must make sure that methods are available for testing their proposed hypotheses
• Purposiveness
• The researcher must formulate only purposeful hypotheses, which has relevance with research problem objectives.
• Verifiability
• A good hypothesis can be actually verified in practical terms.
• Profundity of effect
• A good hypothesis should have profound effect upon a variety of research variables.
• The expenditure of money the time can be controlled if the hypotheses underlying the research undertaken is good.
• The most important sources of hypotheses are theoretical or conceptual frameworks developed for the study.
• Through a deductive approach these hypotheses are drawn from theoretical or conceptual frameworks for testing them.
• For example, Roys adaptation Model is used in a research study, where a hypothesis can be drawn from a concept of the theoretical mode that patients adaptation to a chronic illness depends on availability of social support for them.
• Findings of the previous studies may be used for framing the hypotheses for another study.
• For example, in a small sample descriptive study, a researcher found that a number of patients admitted with coronary artery disease had increased body mass index.
• In another research study, a researcher may use this finding to formulate a hypothesis as Obese patients have increased risk for development of coronary artery disease.
• Real-life experiences also contribute in the formulation of hypotheses for research studies.
• For example, Newton had a life-changing experience of the falling of an apple formulated a hypothesis that earth attracts all the mass towards its centre, through several researchers were conducted before generating a law of central gravity.
• Academic literature is based on formal theories, empirical evidences, experiences, observation, conceptualizations of academicians.
• These literatures may serve as good sources for formulating hypotheses for research studies.
• Simple hypothesis
• It is a statement which reflects the relationship between two variables.
• For example, the lower the level of hemoglobin, the higher is the risk of infection among postpartum women.
• Complex hypothesis
• It is a statement which reflects the relationship between more than two variables.
• For example, satisfaction is higher among patients who are older dwelling in rural area than those who are younger dwelling in urban area.
• Associative hypothesis
• It reflects a relationship between variables that occurs or exists in natural settings without manipulation.
• This hypothesis is used in correlational research studies
• Causal hypothesis
• It predicts the cause-and-effect relationship between two or more dependent independent variables in experimental or interventional setting, where independent variable is manipulated by research to examine the effect on the dependent variable.
• The causal hypothesis reflects the measurement of dependent variable to examine the effect of dependent variable, which is manipulated by the researcher(s).
• For examples, prevalence of pin site infection is lower in patients who receive pin site care with hydrogen proxidide as compared to patients who receive the pin site care with Betadine solution.
• Directional hypothesis
• It specifies not only the existence, but also the expected direction of the relationship between variables.
• Directional hypothesis states the nature of the relationship between two or more variables such as positive, negative, or no relationship.
• To express the direction of relationship between variables, the directional terms are used to state the hypothesis such as positive, negative, less, more, increased, decreased, greater, higher, lower, etc.
• For examples, there is a positive relationship between years of nursing experience job satisfaction among nurses.
• Nondirectional Hypothesis
• It reflects the relationship between two or more variables, but is does not specify the anticipated direction nature of relationship such as positive or negative.
• It indicates the existence of relationship between the variables.
• For example, there is relationship between years of nursing experience job satisfaction among nurses.
• Null hypothesis (H0)
• It is also known as statistical hypothesis is used for statistical testing interpretation of statistical outcomes.
• It states the existence of no relationship between the independent dependent variables.
• For example, there is no relationship between smoking the incidence of coronary artery disease.
• Research hypothesis (H1)
• It states the existence of relationship between two or more variables.
• For examples, there is relationship between smoking incidence of lung cancer.

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DEVELOPMENT HYPOTHESIS

A hypothesis is a tentative statement of a relationship about which there is some uncertainty. It requires testing. It is frequently stated as a proposition and assumed so that its logical or empirical consequences can be examined more closely according to facts and evidence which is known or may be established.

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2018- 2019 session students, Department Of Political Science Jagannath University.

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In a provocative editorial, Yanai and Lercher (henceforth Y&L) claim that "a hypothesis is a liability" [2]. They contend that having a hypothesis is costly because it causes scientists to miss hidden data and interesting phenomena. Y&L advocate "hypothesis-free" data exploration, which they argue can yield significant scientific discoveries. We disagree. While we concur that a bad hypothesis is a liability, there is no such thing as hypothesis-free data exploration. Observation and data are always hypothesis-or theory-laden. Data is meaningless without some form of hypothesis or theory. Any exploration of data, however informal, is necessarily guided by some form of expectations. Even informal hunches or conjectures are types of proto-hypothesis. Furthermore , seemingly hypothesis-free statistical tools and computational techniques also contain latent hypotheses and theories about what is important-what might be interesting , worth measuring or paying attention to. Thus, while Y&L argue that a "hypoth-esis is a liability," we argue that hypothesis-free observation is not possible (nor desirable) and that hypotheses in fact are the primary engine of scientific creativity and discovery. The hidden gorilla To illustrate their point about how a hypothesis is a liability, Y&L present their own version of the famous gorilla experiment [3]. In their experiment, subjects receive some made-up data featuring three variables: the BMI of individuals, the number of steps taken on a particular day, and their gender. One experimental group received three hypotheses to consider, while the other was "hypothesis-free." Subjects in this latter group were simply asked to address the question "what do you conclude from the dataset?" Felin et al. Genome Biology (2021) 22:57

The Significance of the Hypothetical in the Natural Sciences

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Helping students understand and generate appropriate hypotheses and test their subsequent predictions – in science in general and biology in particular – should be at the core of teaching the nature of science. However, there is much confusion among students and teachers about the difference between hypotheses and predictions. Here, I present evidence of the problem and describe steps that scientists actually follow when employing scientific reasoning strategies. This is followed by a proposed solution for helping students effectively explore this important aspect of the nature of science.

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Many researchers and beginners in social research have several dilemmas and confusion in their mind about hypothesis statement and statistical testing of hypotheses. A distinction between the research hypothesis and statistical hypotheses, and understanding the limitations of the historically used null hypothesis statistical testing, is useful in clarifying these doubts. This article presents some data from the published research articles to support the view that the is format as well as the will format is appropriate to stating hypotheses. The article presents a social research framework to present the research hypothesis and statistical hypotheses is proper perspective.

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A The purpose of scientific research is to determine rules and suggest theories that can elucidate natural or social phenomena .The Merriam Webster dictionary defines theory as "a plausible or scientifically acceptable general principle or body of principles offered to explain phenomena"… "a hypothesis assumed for the sake of argument or investigation". A theory allows us to explain how the world is functioning around us. In the research context, a theory is an indispensable system which permits the researcher to explain a scientific or a human phenomenon. In the scientific context, for instance, evolutionary theory explains the existence of the different species. In social science, various theories explain how human beings function and interact. Anthropological theories explore and investigate societies and cultures while psychological theories tackle human behaviors. A theory works as a lens to facilitate the development of experiments and other types of further investigation to gain knowledge and test the theory. Moreover, a theory, as in macro-level theories, impacts the researcher's ontological and epistemological arguments which therefore shape the nature of the research and its ability to produce results or what to "do". These theories, serving various disciplines, guide the researcher in obtaining data and discovering meaning throughout the research process. Once having developed a theory, the researcher authenticates or improves that theory based on the collected data results through what we refer to as the deductive approach. On the other hand, an inductive approach allows the researcher to start the data collection process followed by a shaping of the theory based on the

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