• DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3860852
  • Corpus ID: 235669153

Retail Banking Trends in India

  • Dr. Bhadrappa Haralayya
  • Published 2021
  • Business, Economics
  • PSN: Financial Institutions (Topic)

13 Citations

Analysis of banks total factor productivity by disaggregate level, study on non performing assets of public sector banks, inter bank analysis of cost efficiency using mean, analysis of bank performance using camel approach, analysis of bank productivity using panel causality test, factors determining the efficiency in indian banking sector: an tobit regression analysis, the promotion and optimization of bank financial products using consumers’ psychological perception, analysis of total factor productivity and profitability matrix of banks by hmtfp and fptfp, analysis of cost efficiency on scheduled commercial banks in india, study on theoretical foundations of bank efficiency, related papers.

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Title: Retail banking in India - trends, problems and prospects
Authors:   
 
Issue Date: 2006
Publisher: Indian Institute of Management Bangalore
Series/Report no.: Contemporary Concerns Study;CCS.PGP.P6-116
Abstract: The term retail banking encompasses housing loans, retail deposit schemes, retail loans, credit cards, debit cards, insurance products, mutual funds, depository services including demat facilities and a host of other services catering to the needs of the individual customers. It can be seen that retail banking includes various financial services and products forming part of the assets as well as the liabilities segment of the Banks. In other words, it refers to taking care of the banking needs of individual customers in an integrated manner. In India retail banking has become one of the most attractive segments for banks because of reasons that have been analyzed in this report. The primary objective behind the study was to find out if the growth in this segment in India of long term nature or is it more of a bubble nature. Even more importantly, we set out to discover the changes that India would need to implement if the tremendous growth in this field has to be sustained over the years.
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Neobanking in India: Opportunities and Challenges from Customer Perspective

Proceedings of the International Conference on Innovative Computing & Communication (ICICC) 2022

4 Pages Posted: 22 Feb 2022

Kayva Shabu

University of Kerala

Vasanthagopal Ramankutty

Date Written: February 17, 2022

Banking and financial instruments are ever-evolving as per the need of the economy and industries; this is how innovative financial instruments take birth. From mere money lenders and the basic principle of lending, banks have transformed into a modern banking system in which core banking and digitalization plays a major role. Fintech and blockchain technology are the main elements of digitalized banking. After the impact of demonetization and the pandemic spread of the novel coronavirus there has occurred a tendency among people to incline towards digital payments and net banking. Digital payment apps, e-wallets, and online shopping are now going through a higher growth rate. Thus reliability on digital modes is also increasing. Neobanking is a concept completely powered by Fintech wherein there exists no bank in its physical form and complete operation is in its virtual form. This has enabled the Neobanking system to be the financial institution in its complete sustainable potential. The benefits are also distributed among the customers. This paper intends to study the scope of Neobanking in India and also the opportunities and challenges from the customer perspective. Content analysis and the thematic approach of all the customer responses through twitter are also analyzed to get estimation on the prospect of receiving customers and anticipation of their approach, whether positive or negative for the Neobanking system in India. The analysis was found to have a high positive response and approach from neobank users.

Keywords: Neobanking, Digitalisation, Fintech, Sustainable development

Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation

Kayva Shabu (Contact Author)

University of kerala ( email ).

Senate House Campus, Palayam Thiruvananthapuram, Kerala 695004 India

Senate House Campus, Palayam Thiruvananthapuram, Kerala 695004 India 04712300148 (Phone)

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: Jayadev M., Associate Professor and Roger Moser, Visiting Faculty
: Madhulika Kaul and Charvi Tandon

The issue of rural retail banking is extremely topical. Over the past few decades, while urban retail banking has seen a lot of growth, rural areas have continued to suffer from insufficient access to financial services. This is mainly due to the requirement of asset deeds, identity and income proofs among other documents by banks and FIs and absence of enough branches in these areas. The high cost of conventional banking is an additional impediment to the realisation of financial inclusion.

Our study has tried to understand how the Indian rural retail banking industry (industry) will develop over the next decade. We aimed to identify the institutional environment of this industry in the coming decade as well as the activities that banks and other financial institutions (FIs) in India will need to invest in to realize the full potential of this market.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) had a mandate to promote rural credit and banking by virtue of the provisions of Section 54 of the RBI Act. Through the State Bank of India (SBI) Act in 1955, the SBI was made an important organisation for extending rural credit to supplement the efforts of cooperative institutions. These cooperative institutions, better known as primary agricultural credit societies (PACS) also provide other agricultural inputs to the farmers. The next step to supplement the efforts of cooperatives and commercial banks was the establishment of regional rural banks in 1975 in different states with equity participation from commercial banks, central and state governments. In 1982, to consolidate the various arrangements made by the RBI to promote/supervise institutions and channel credit to rural areas, the National Bank for Agricultural and Rural Development (NABARD) was established.

Currently, according to a series of estimates and market studies the number of rural bank branches is 31,727. This is 39.7% of the total number of bank branches in the country. The number of no-frill accounts is 28.23 million. There are only 54 savings accounts for every 100 persons in rural areas and only 26% of rural citizens with an annual income of less than Rs. 50000 have a bank account. In the same income bracket, only 13% farmers have ever availed of bank loans while 54% have used non-institutional and other forms of lending . Thus, there is sufficient need for extending financial services to the rural areas. Exhibit 1 details the supply and demand side factors that challenge the growth of rural retail banking.

Factors influencing demand and supply in the rural retail banking industry

A number of innovations and experiments have been initiated to bridge the gap between the rural population and the formal retail banking system.

an initiative that attempted to mobilize rural savings by local institutions and make them available for investment locally. As of 2005, only four LABs were functioning in the country. The major handicap in their business model was the lack of a re-financing facility that hindered their ability to lend at better rates. with bank linkages was another indigenously developed banking model. Being a savings - first model, credit discipline is a norm of the group; besides joint liability and social collateral make such groups bankable in the eyes of bankers. The linkages are achieved through non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and other intermediaries, and this has formed the basis of the micro-finance movement in India. However, the absence of NGOs in states like Bihar, Uttar Pradesh and those in the north-east has been a stumbling block in spreading this model in these states. model where funds were placed at the disposal of NGOs or MFIs for lending to SHGs or other groups and even to individuals. However, this model was not able to scale-up due to the low capitalization of the NGO/MFIs and their inability to undertake financial intermediation. Also, this meant that the formal banks had a two-level exposure and this further reduced the potential for scaling-up. the MFI evaluates, recommends, originates the loans, helps in disbursal and subsequently tracks and collects the loans. However, the loans sit on the books of the bank and not of the MFI. This model has overcome the constraints of capitalization of the MFI and the double exposure that the banks were subjected to. that enables the farmer to get loans over a three to five year period as a revolving credit entitlement, thus, providing them control over their cash flows and reduced transaction costs for both the banks and the farmers. However, the biggest roadblock has been the creation of point of sale (POS) kiosks and acceptance of the cards. and the models (Exhibit 2) have been other innovations in this field. Institutions or persons, who interface between the rural poor and banks, are leveraged to provide support services under well-defined terms and conditions by way of contractual arrangements. In the case of the business facilitator model, as per the law, these agencies provide basic support services such as customer identification, collection of information/applications, credit appraisal, marketing etc. Under the business correspondent model, specific agencies e.g. MFIs, NBFCs etc. also provide disbursal of small value credit as �pass through� agents for the parent bank. Business correspondent model

The Delphi study approach has been used to identify and understand the different scenarios that will emerge for rural retail banking in 2020. It is a method for the �systematic solicitation and collation of judgments on a particular topic through a set of carefully designed sequential questionnaires interspersed with summarized information and feedback of opinions derived from earlier responses� Opinions about a certain problem or task are solicited through mail or electronic means in a geographically dispersed network.

The main features of this approach are anonymity to prevent influence of any group members, controlled feedback due to multiple rounds of survey summaries and a statistical output as a final response. It being an iterative and expert based system, the Delphi study approach is regarded as a research technique especially suitable for complex issues. For our study this was particularly relevant since we wished to understand how the rural retail banking industry will evolve over the next decade. Several experts in the field of retail banking, rural banking, rural finance and microfinance were approached through a web-tool and the final opinions of the various experts were studied and analyzed to reach our conclusion and recommendations.

Based on our secondary research and interviews with experts in the industry 20 projections were formulated for the possible scenario in the industry in the year 2020. These projections can largely be classified into � outcome and enabler projections. Exhibit 3 lists out the 20 projections.

Projections for 2020

These projections concern the actual state of affairs in the industry in 2020. They are a description of a specific situation in 2020 rather than an activity by a specific player in the society. These projections are further categorised under the following four fronts:

� A strict regulatory regime is expected for the industry in the future, accompanied with increasing changes in norms and frameworks, primarily, the removal of the cap on interest rates as imposed by the RBI at present.

� The greater share of the market will be serviced by the MFIs and NBFCs. A collaborative alliance with internationally banks will be the primary source of funds and other resources for the MFIs and NBFCs.

� Urbanization and migration from the rural areas would substantially decrease the size of the market for the FIs. Even the consumers would become more aware and knowledgeable about the various financial services and products and hence, would expect one-stop shop solutions from the FIs.

� Consumer databases providing information about the credit history and financial dealings of the consumers and thus enabling the FIs to design customized products and better manage their credit portfolio will be put in place. In addition, mobile phones would become the means of the primary delivery mechanism in the rural areas owing to their high penetration and reach and low costs.

The other kinds of projections for the industry in 2020 were the enabler projections. These projections pertain to the stakeholders in the industry � customers, suppliers, competitors, government and society. These projections reflect the actions that are needed to be taken by these shareholders to enable the outcome projections.

The projections formulated for the year 2020 were analysed using the Delphi approach. The various experts who took part in the study were asked to rate the projections on the following counts:

of occurrence of the respective projection in 2020. on the industry if the projection is true. The scale used was a 5-point scale from 1 to 5 where 1 signifies very low impact and 5 signifies very high impact. of the occurrence of the projection. The scale used for was a 5-point scale from 1 to 5 where 1 signifies very low desirability and 5 signifies very high desirability.

Based on the responses of the participants in the study two metrics were calculated for each projection � consensus and convergence.

Consensus signifies the consensus among the experts as to the probability of occurrence of the projections. The variance among the responses of all the experts is taken as a measure of the consensus among the experts. A variance of up to 25 is taken as a sign of strong consensus, from 26 to 40 is taken as a sign of moderate dissent and greater than 40 is taken as sign of high dissent.

Convergence refers to the changes in the responses of the participants over the period of the study as they studied the responses of the other participants and altered their responses accordingly. It is calculated as the change in absolute deviation of the final responses from the absolute deviation of the initial responses as a percentage of the absolute deviation of the initial responses. An absolute value of convergence up to 10% is taken as moderate convergence, from 11% to 20% is taken as strong convergence and greater than 20% is taken as very strong convergence. Exhibit 4 gives the mean value of probability, impact and desirability and the degree of consensus and convergence for each of the 20 projections.

Metrics for each projection

Based on our study we have concluded that the following scenarios are the most probable in the year 2020 for the Indian rural retail banking industry:

� with increased education among the consumers and greater availability of information, the consumer awareness will increase regarding the financial services and products that are present in the market and they will demand one-stop shop solutions for all their financial needs. � the introduction of the UID project has led to the hope and an increasing probability of presence of extensive consumer databases in 2020. These databases will provide information about consumer credit history and financial transactions to enable the FIs to customize products suited to the consumers� needs. - there is a low probability that international banks would be the chosen medium of capitalization for the MFIs in 2020. They will be largely capitalized by the local Indian financial markets. This could be owing to the FDI regulations in the country as well as sufficient liquidity in the Indian financial markets. � the FIs would work towards designing localized financial services that would serve to provide one-stop shop solutions and remove information asymmetry because of their local presence. � the high penetration of mobile services in the country and advances in secure transfer mechanisms will see the rise of mobile phones as delivery platforms by 2020. This will be further augmented by the low costs associated with this delivery mechanism.

Banking, Rural Banking, Microfinance, Rural Credit, Delphi Study

is an Associate Professor in the Finance and Control area at IIM Bangalore. He holds a Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) and a M. Phil from Osmania University, Hyderabad. He is also an associate member of Indian Institute of Bankers. He can be reached at

is a Visiting Faculty, EADS-SMI Endowed Chair for Sourcing and Supply Management, IIM Bangalore and an Assistant Professor at European Business School. He holds a Ph. D. from European Business School Oestrich-Winkel and an MBA from University of St. Gallen, Switzerland. He can be reached at

(PGP 2009-11) holds a Bachelor�s degree in Electrical Engineering from Punjab Engineering College, Chandigarh. She can be reached at

(PGP 2009-11) holds a Bachelor�s degree in Electronics and Communication Engineering from Indira Gandhi Institute of Technology, Guru Gobind Singh Indraprastha University, Delhi. She can be reached at

Banking, Rural Banking, Microfinance, Rural Credit, Delphi Study

Key note Address by Dr K. C. Chakrabarty, RBI Deputy Governor, at the Review Meet on Implementation of Revival Package for Short Term Rural Cooperative Credit Structure organised by National Federation of State Cooperative Banks (NAFSCOB), New Delhi, 2008

Prof. G. Ram Reddy Third Endowment Lecture by Dr. Y. V. Reddy, Deputy Governor, Reserve Bank of India, December 4, 1999

�Pushing Financial Inclusion � Issues, Challenges and Way Forward�, Dr. K. C. Chakrabarty, RBI Deputy Governor, SKOCH Summit 2009

Report of the Internal Group to Examine Issues Relating to Rural Credit and Microfinance, RBI, July 2005

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Entity & Insights

Tech Disruption In Retail Banking: Top-Tier India Banks Lead The Change

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  • 18 Jan, 2021 | 08:13
  • APAC, United States of America
  • Sector Financial Institutions Banks
  • Topic The Future of Banking

Technology: Disruption Risk | Low

Regulation: disruption risk | low, preferences: disruption risk | moderate, industry: disruption risk | low, related research.

( Editor's Note: This article is part of a series of commentaries on retail banking sectors, illustrating how technology disruption forms part of S&P Global Ratings' analysis of banks.)

Key Takeaways

  • Top-tier private-sector banks and State Bank of India are already at the forefront of adopting technology.
  • Regulations and Indian government initiatives provide push for digital development in India.
  • The country's banking system is underpenetrated so there will be room for all.

India's central bank and its government are playing a pivotal role in laying the foundation and continually raising the bar for fintech development in the country's banking system. The range of measures include setting up digital connectivity to reach India's grassroots, building a state-of-the-art payment infrastructure, setting up open banking and regulatory sandboxes to urge innovation, and pushing customer preferences toward digitalization.

Many banks in India have also been quick to embrace new technologies to cater to a vast and growing, young, tech-savvy customer base. S&P Global Ratings believes India's top-tier private-sector banks and State Bank of India (SBI) are well-placed to deal with tech disruptions, given their dominant market positions and continued investments in technology. Several nonbank financial companies (NBFCs) have made considerable traction in having technology-led banking solutions omnipresent in their core business models. Use of artificial intelligence and machine learning are going beyond loan underwriting to customer onboarding, cross-selling, servicing, fraud management, etc. However, we believe several state-owned banks and the smaller private-sector banks require considerable catching up; they are currently grappling with technology hurdles and weak profitability due to asset quality challenges.

We expect a rise in industry collaborations between traditional banks in India and fintechs. At the same time, considerable investments are required to upgrade legacy systems in traditional banks. The banking system's low profitability and weak asset quality present some difficulties in significantly boosting digitalization. Although we believe the industry's competitive dynamics will continue to evolve, new entrants have failed to leave their mark so far. Payment banks in India have less than 1% of the deposit market share and remain unprofitable; restrictive licenses render the model rather unviable. Big tech companies have also entered the industry, but they have not been able to encroach into the mainstays of the incumbent banks, namely lending and deposits.

COVID-19 restrictions have been a boost for India's major digital payment system, Unified Payment Interface (UPI). The value of transactions processed via the UPI almost doubled in June to November 2020 compared with the same period a year ago. We expect this shift in consumer preferences to remain. Increasing smartphone penetration and internet connectivity and the young, tech-savvy demographic segment present vast opportunities in India's underpenetrated market for existing banks and new players.

We are illustrating our current views of disruption risk with our four-factor analysis of the Indian banking system's technology, regulation, industry, and preferences (TRIP; see chart 1) relative to international peers'.

India's banks are quick to embrace new technology

In our view, the technological infrastructure in India is developing rapidly and presents opportunities for fintech in an otherwise underpenetrated financial market. We believe Indian financial institutions have also been embracing new technology as the root of innovative product solutions. Therefore, the risks posed by technology on the banking system are currently low.

India's government efforts, among other things, have played an important role in laying the groundwork for building a fintech ecosystem in the country. In addition, it continues to push the digital agenda. The government's Budget 2020-21 proposed various measures, including building data centers, improving digital connectivity, etc.

IndiaStack, a government-led initiative, is a set of Application Programming Interfaces (APIs) that allows various entities including governments, businesses, startups, and developers to use its unique digital infrastructure. Its technological architecture is based on creating a unique digital identity, digital records, and a single interface for all bank accounts and e-wallets that facilitates secured movement of data and payments across platforms.

Aadhaar, the world's largest biometric ID system, and UPI have been the most prominent developments of IndiaStack over the years. IndiaStack has about 1.06 billion unique digital IDs (Aadhaar) and 339 million Aadhaar-linked bank accounts. Various publicly provided platforms for verification (e-KYC), digital signature (e-sign), cloud storage (DigiLocker), and payments have been developed over Aadhaar. Developers can use these platforms to leverage on the existing digital infrastructure rather than building from scratch.

UPI has also been an essential enabler of transfers between bank accounts (both merchant payments and fund transfers). In China, e-wallets such Ant Financial's Alipay and Tencent Holdings Ltd.'s WeChat Pay dominate mobile payments, causing deposit leakage from banks as money gets transferred to these wallets, moving out of the banking system. In India's case, mobile payment users are shifting away from e-wallets toward UPI. In fact, various e-commerce giants and big tech companies such as Amazon and Google use UPI in India. For example, Amazon India offers the use of both e-wallet and UPI under Amazon Pay. Google Pay has only payment via UPI. Moreover, PhonePe (parent Walmart) and Google Pay are the most commonly used mobile payment apps and have a collective market share of more than 80% of transactions done (see chart 2). Currently, these digital payment mechanisms are offered free; the tech companies are doing it to get better access to customers. That said, unlike e-wallets where the deposits move out of the banking system, for UPI, the money remains in the banking system so the banks don't lose deposit and the customers earn interest at the same time. Thus, the banking system is able to maintain an edge in the payment system and retain its deposit base.

Indian banks are also getting active in garnering market share in the UPI space. For example, ICICI Bank Ltd. recently launched "iMobile Pay," where customers of any bank can link their bank account, generate a UPI ID, and make payments immediately.

The number of transactions done via UPI has been growing exponentially in the last few years and has far exceeded the transactions processed through e-wallets (see chart 3). The pandemic has also resulted in a multifold increase in the value of UPI-based transactions. In November 2020, the transaction value surged 107% year on year to approximately INR3,910 billion. We believe evolving customer preferences will continue to boost the adoption of digital payments and the trend may sustain.

The banking and financial services sector is also leading the private sector in the adoption of blockchain-based solutions. Examples include Axis Bank Ltd., launching its international payment service using Ripple's enterprise blockchain technology in November 2017 for its retail and corporate customers, and; ICICI bank Ltd. announcing in April 2018 its onboarding of over 250 corporates on its blockchain platform for domestic and international trade finance. Traditional banks have been keen to collaborate and provide access to their platforms to reap benefits from open API frameworks. In January 2020, ICICI Bank launched an API banking portal with nearly 250 APIs ranging from services including payments, accounts, deposits, cards, and loans. Using the portal, developers will be permitted to build, test, and release their API-based solution on the bank's platform. Advanced technological solutions such as big data analytics and artificial intelligence are also being adopted by many players to extend credit efficiently over digital platforms.

While there is no well-established legislative framework for open banking yet, India's own version of open banking is taking shape in the form of a central bank introduced framework for "Non-Banking Financial Company-Account Aggregators" (NBFC-AA). This will enable customer financial data to be shared within the regulated financial system with the customer's knowledge and consent. The NBFC-AAs are licensed and regulated by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI).

In our view, low smartphone penetration or internet connectivity problems have not hindered the development of fintech in the country. In fact, it has paved way for innovative products. For example, in order to overcome internet connectivity problems as a major hurdle for digital payments in rural areas, RBI announced a pilot scheme under which, authorized payment system operators including banks and nonbanks can provide offline payment solutions using cards, e-wallets or mobile devices for remote or proximity payments. Likewise, UPI is also available for non-internet based mobile devices through dialing options (*99#). At the same time, the Internet penetration level has been rising rapidly. We believe further improvement in penetration could open more opportunities for the banking system.

RBI and industry players working hand in glove toward a shared purpose

We regard regulation and policymaking as a low disruption risk for Indian banks. In our view, the Indian government and RBI are supportive in setting the stage for fintech development and competition in the financial services sector. They are also willing and open to working with other industry players toward this shared goal. That said, the central bank is also performing a balancing act by taking measured steps in fintech regulation to maintain financial stability in the sector.

There is no single universal fintech regulator in India, but the fintech companies are regulated based on the products and services they offer. RBI regulates some fintechs directly by granting them NBFC licenses (such as NBFC-P2P or NBFC-AA). RBI has been setting up regulatory frameworks across various fintech verticals such as digital payments, P2P lending, and now account aggregator. RBI also recently permitted banks and other regulated financial institutions to digitally onboard customers using video-based know-your-customer (KYC) processes. Furthermore, equivalent e-documents, including documents issued to the digital locker account of the customer, with valid digital signature of the issuing authority have been allowed for due diligence of the customer. In our view, steps like these could help reduce the cost of onboarding significantly for banks, NBFCs, and other fintech players.

The central bank has set up a regulatory sandbox framework to enable live testing of new financial products and services in a controlled regulatory environment. The regulatory framework also provides a list of indicative innovative products, services, and technology which could be considered for testing under the sandbox and a suggested list of exclusion (see chart 4). Under RBI's first round of experiments within its regulatory sandbox, where the theme was retail payments, the central bank received various applications last year and recently shortlisted six entities for a test phase. Although the kick-off for the test phase was delayed due to COVID-19 (all six entities started testing of their products in November and December 2020), we expect this framework to evolve to become a key enabler for innovation in the sector. In December 2020, RBI announced its second regulatory sandbox initiative with cross-border payments as its theme. The central bank also said micro, small and medium enterprise lending will be the theme for its third initiative.

To widen financial inclusion, RBI issued differentiated banking license namely, small finance banks and payments banks in 2015. Nevertheless, RBI does not allow any digital-only banks to operate in the country. It continues to place its emphasis on physical networks and mandates purely digital loan companies, operating through mobile apps, have at least one physical presence for customers to connect. The RBI also highlighted in its 2014 Guidelines for Licensing of Payments Banks that it does not envisage payment banks to be "virtual" or branchless banks. Various traditional banks have launched their own digital banking platforms, for example Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd.'s 811 or SBI's Yono.

Earlier this month, RBI announced that it has constructed a composite digital payments index, with March 2018 as the base period, to capture the extent of digitization of payments across the country. As of March 2020, this index stood at 207.84, indicating high growth in last two years with a doubling of digitization.

The government launched its Digital India campaign five years ago to transform India into a digitally empowered society and knowledge economy. The vision is centered on three key areas-–digital infrastructure as a core utility for every citizen, governance and services on demand, and digital empowerment of citizens.

In 2014, the government launched "Pradhan Mantri Jan Dhan Yojna" to foster financial inclusion. The program involves opening a basic savings bank account for those without one. Approximately 414 million beneficiaries have been added since the launch and it continues to gain traction. The government is also using the Jan Dhan platform for direct benefit transfer for its welfare and subsidies schemes. In our view, these steps should go a long way in improving the financial inclusion.

Along with the digital push, the government of India and RBI have been prioritizing cybersecurity measures, especially against privacy breaches. There are a number of legislative actions underway covering various aspects, including data protection, digital payment security, and cybersecurity.

The central bank has taken a cautious approach toward virtual currencies, including cryptocurrencies. This stems from various factors, including the lack of transparency, which increases risk of illegal activities like money laundering and terror financing. While the Supreme Court has lifted the ban on cryptocurrency exchanges, we expect this to gain some ground with the regulator when the models are proven a success in other leading banking systems around the world.

Robust ground zero infrastructure provides an impetus to digital adoption

We assess the disruption risk from customers preference as moderate. India's young population, rising internet and smartphone penetration along with a banking system that is not fully entrenched in the rural segment creates a demand for digital financial operations in India. Banks, especially the large ones, have been fast to sense this opportunity and have been upgrading their infrastructure continuously and improving their product and service offerings through digital platforms. The use of online and mobile banking has been rising rapidly. About 65% of SBI's transactions for the six months ended Sept. 30, 2020, were through digital means (i.e., internet, mobile, UPI, YONO, and green channel). For HDFC Bank, 95% of its customer-initiated transactions were through the internet and mobile. Given that India is an underpenetrated market, digitalization helps in financial inclusion. Along with reach, digitalization also benefits banks by reducing cost and enabling them to provide an efficient service.

Within the cashless mode, mobile payments have been growing faster than cards in India. Transactions via mobile apps formed more than 50% of total payment transactions in October 2020. India's cost of mobile data is among the lowest in the world and its mobile penetration has been rising rapidly, thereby acting as a strong enabler for growth in mobile payments (see chart 5).

We believe many bank clients still prefer being able to visit a branch and have face-to-face meeting. We expect this to remain for some time. Also, rural areas are still not sufficiently well served by branch networks. Hence, we expect the number of branches to continue to rise, although at a slower pace as banks try to balance the physical versus digital presence. The pace of growth of bank branches has already slowed since 2015, as the number of mobile and internet banking transitions for commercial banks increased exponentially (see chart 6). In India, cash is still a highly preferred mode of payment, evident in the relatively higher proportion of currency in circulation as a percentage of GDP. India's currency in circulation is higher than some other Asian peers, such as China, Indonesia, and Korea, but lower than Hong Kong and Japan. Although the proportion of currency in circulation to GDP has been rising in the past few years, it is still somewhat lower than 12.1% in fiscal 2015-2016 (prior to demonetization). It was 11.2% in fiscal 2018-2019 and estimated to be about 12% in fiscal 2019-2020. Demonetization in November 2016 pushed the general public to opt for cashless payment options. Although the use of cash has been rising since, but from unusually low levels, retail consumers have continued to use digital payments (mobile and card).

New entrants paving new roads--not inroads

We assess the risk posed to the incumbent banks' longstanding market position due to disruption in the industry as low. In our view, digital disruption is unlikely to change the structure of the Indian banking industry, and we expect large banks dominating and gaining market share for at least the next two years. New private-sector banks and top-tier public-sector banks with better franchises, higher internal capital generation, and a focus on digital banking technologies are likely to continue to gain market share and consolidate the industry.

The top five banks accounted for 55% of total system deposits as of Sept. 30, 2020, and we expect the proportion to remain somewhat similar for next two to three years at least. NBFCs also play an important role in credit delivery in India with about 25% market share by assets (see chart 7). In addition, the introduction of payment banks and small finance banks in India has failed to move the needle materially. The big tech companies did enter the payment space but are staying away from lending and savings due to regulatory restrictions. In handling payments, they have been using UPI's framework. Thus, banks still tend to have the upper hand. That said, the Indian banking system continues to be underpenetrated and growth opportunities are ample for new and existing market participants.

While the banking system continues to grapple with high credit costs and poor asset quality in a weak credit cycle, leading NBFCs, new private-sector banks and SBI remain at the forefront of technology adoption. Several leading NBFCs have made considerable traction in having technology-led banking solutions in their core business models. We believe the large incumbent banks in India are ready to get on the bandwagon. They have adopted various technology-led banking solutions, created ecosystems to increase their customers, and bridged gaps with fintech collaborations.

A large number of traditional banks have supplemented their banking propositions with a full-service digital banking platform to meet evolving customer needs and increase customer engagement rates. They have deployed virtual banking assistants, chatbots or virtual relationship managers that use machine learning, artificial intelligence, and natural language processing to assist customers with not only regular banking transactions but also lifestyle services that are beyond banking. For instance, HDFC Bank launched myApps, a suite of customized white-label apps that will enable large institutions such as urban local bodies, housing societies, clubs, and religious societies to digitize their ecosystems completely.

We believe the strategy of adding value beyond basic banking services and consequently becoming a part of the customers' lifestyle will boost customer engagement and relevance for the bank. The top three private-sector banks along with SBI command a market share of more than 50% of the banking system's mobile banking transactions in terms of both value and volume, with SBI alone at 22% (see charts 8 and 9). Small and midsize banks are not only grappling with this emerging tech order of the day but also weak profitability. We expect these banks to accelerate investments in technology or risk falling back. On a positive note, we have seen contribution from some of the other government-owned banks (other than SBI) to the banking system's mobile banking transactions also rising, partly due to the recent consolidation.

In our view, fintech players have a complementary role to banks. Although fintech companies have superior technological know-how and new ideas, banks benefit from customers' trust based on long-standing relationship and size over fintech companies. As such, Indian banks have been collaborating with fintech companies for various operational functions to create a win-win solution for banks, fintech companies and the customers. For example, Bank of Baroda has tied up with CreditMantri for technology to draw data of small and midsize enterprises and assess the customers on the strength of personal and business data points. The alliance is also helpful in offering small loans to first-time borrowers and gradually capturing other business requirements from them.

We expect the dominance of banks to continue. For activities other than digital payments, commercial banks with physical branches are expected to remain the primary choice for customers, particularly when applying for personal and business loans, and seeking investment advice.

Interesting times lie ahead for the Indian financial industry landscape. Fintech has been entering the Indian market in a big way. India is the fastest-growing fintech market and the third-largest fintech ecosystem in the world. According to Ernst & Young's Global Fintech Adoption Index, an index that gauges the broadness of local consumers' usage of fintech, India's adoption rate was 87% for 2019, which is one of the highest (along with its regional peer, China) and is considerably higher than the global average of 64%. Digital payments have been at the forefront of India's fintech sector. We have seen new entrants in this sector, but we expect the position of incumbent banks to remain strong and strengthen further as they are also adopting technology at a rapid pace.

  • The Future Of Banking: Research By S&P Global Ratings, September 14, 2020
  • Tech Disruption In Retail Banking: Agile Thai Banks Have An Upper Hand, Aug 26, 2020
  • Tech Disruption In Retail Banking: Digitalization Will Divide Taiwan Banks, July 30, 2020
  • Tech Disruption In Retail Banking: Korean Banks Accelerate Digital Transformation, July 30,
  • Tech Disruption In Retail Banking: Singapore Banks Are Front-Runners In Digital Race, June 3,
  • Tech Disruption In Retail Banking: Australia's Big Banks Hold Their Ground As Tech Takes
  • Center Stage, June 2, 2020
  • Tech Disruption In Retail Banking: Hong Kong's Large Banks Are Pioneering The City's Fintech
  • Development, June 3, 2020
  • Tech Disruption In Retail Banking: Better Late Than Never For Japanese Fintech, Feb. 6, 2020
  • Tech Disruption In Retail Banking: China's Banks Are Playing Catch-Up To Big Tech, May 14,
  • The Future Of Banking: Will Retail Bank/s Trip Over Tech Disruption?, May 14, 2019

This report does not constitute a rating action.

Primary Author:Deepali V Seth Chhabria, Mumbai + 912233424186;
Geeta Chugh, Mumbai + 912233421910;
Research Assistant:Priyal Shah, CFA, Mumbai

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Impact of Retail CBDC on Digital Payments, and Bank Deposits: Evidence from India

Interest in central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) has been burgeoning with 134 countries now exploring its implementation. In December 2022, India started its CBDC pilot program to continue its transition towards a digitized payments economy. This paper presents the first empirical analysis utilizing detailed transaction data to explore the dynamics between CBDCs and existing digital payment methods, as well as the implications of increased CBDC usage on traditional bank deposits. Our findings reveal that policies which increase transaction costs for current digital payment methods catalyze a substitution effect, bolstering CBDC adoption. Furthermore, an uptick in CBDC usage is associated with a notable decline in bank, cash, and savings deposits, suggesting potential paths to bank disintermediation. This study contributes critical insights into the evolving competition between digital currencies and established financial infrastructures, highlighting the transformative potential of CBDCs on the broader economy.

The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research.

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The future of retail banking: how artificial intelligence will reshape the industry.

Luigi Wewege

In the digital age, the banking industry is undergoing a seismic shift, with Artificial Intelligence (AI) at the forefront of this transformation. As the President of an established international bank, I have witnessed firsthand the profound impact that AI is beginning to have on retail banking. From enhancing client experiences to streamlining operations, AI is not just an innovative tool but a fundamental force that is redefining the way banks operate. This article will explore the ways in which AI is set to reshape the retail banking industry, driving efficiency, personalization, and ultimately, a new era of banking.

Enhancing Client Experience

One of the most significant ways AI is transforming retail banking is through the enhancement of client experience. In an era where client expectations are higher than ever, AI provides the tools necessary to meet and exceed these demands.

AI-driven chatbots and virtual assistants are revolutionizing client services by offering 24/7 support, reducing wait times, and providing personalized interactions. These AI tools are not only able to answer basic queries but are increasingly capable of handling more complex issues, thanks to advancements in natural language processing (NLP). This ability to provide immediate, accurate, and personalized service is crucial in today’s competitive banking environment, where client satisfaction can make or break a brand.

Moreover, AI allows banks to analyze vast amounts of client data in real-time, enabling them to offer tailored products and services. By leveraging machine learning algorithms, banks can predict client needs and preferences, offering personalized financial advice and product recommendations. This level of personalization enhances client loyalty and drives engagement, as clients feel more understood and valued by their bank.

Streamlining Operations

Beyond client experience, AI is also set to revolutionize the operational aspects of retail banking. Traditionally, banks have relied on human labor for a variety of tasks, from processing transactions to handling compliance and regulatory requirements. However, AI is poised to take over many of these functions, significantly reducing costs and increasing efficiency.

One of the most promising applications of AI in operations is in the area of fraud detection and prevention. AI systems can analyze patterns in transaction data to identify unusual or suspicious activities in real-time. This allows banks to detect and prevent fraud much more effectively than traditional methods, which often rely on manual review processes that can be slow and prone to error.

Additionally, AI can automate back-office processes, such as document processing, loan approvals, and compliance checks. For example, AI-powered systems can quickly review and verify documents, reducing the time it takes to process loans or open new accounts. This not only speeds up the process but also reduces the potential for human error, ensuring greater accuracy and compliance with regulations.

Driving Innovation in Financial Products and Services

AI is not just improving existing processes but is also driving innovation in the development of new financial products and services. For instance, AI can enable more sophisticated risk assessment models, allowing banks to offer more customized loan products based on a detailed analysis of individual clients' financial behaviors and credit histories. This level of customization can open up new markets and client segments, as banks are able to offer products that better meet the needs of a diverse range of clients.

Moreover, AI-driven insights can help banks develop new investment products that are tailored to individual risk profiles and financial goals. Robo-advisors, powered by AI, are becoming increasingly popular for offering automated, algorithm-driven financial planning services with little to no human supervision. These tools can analyze a client’s financial situation and goals, recommending investment strategies that are optimized for their specific needs.

Furthermore, AI has the potential to revolutionize the way banks approach financial inclusivity. By leveraging AI to assess alternative data sources, such as mobile phone usage or social media activity, banks can extend credit to individuals who may have been excluded from traditional banking services due to a lack of credit history. This not only helps banks reach new clients but also supports broader economic development by providing financial services to underserved populations.

Improving Risk Management and Compliance

Risk management and compliance are critical areas where AI is making significant inroads. The regulatory environment in banking is complex and constantly evolving, making compliance a challenging and resource-intensive task. AI can help banks stay ahead of regulatory changes by automating the monitoring and reporting processes, ensuring that they remain compliant with the latest regulations.

For instance, AI-powered systems can analyze large volumes of transactions and client data to detect potential compliance issues, such as money laundering or other financial crimes. These systems can flag suspicious activities for further investigation, reducing the burden on human compliance officers and allowing them to focus on more strategic tasks.

Managing Partner of Guiraud Law in Panama City, Idaliz Guiraud said that, “AI can improve risk management by providing more accurate and timely assessments of credit and market risks.” Machine learning models can analyze a vast array of data points to predict potential risks, enabling banks to make more informed decisions and better manage their exposure to various financial risks.

The Future of AI in Retail Banking

As AI continues to evolve, its impact on retail banking will only grow. We are already seeing the emergence of more advanced AI applications, such as predictive analytics and deep learning, which are set to further enhance the capabilities of banks.

In the future, we can expect AI to play a central role in the development of fully autonomous banking systems, where AI manages everything from client interactions to back-office operations without the need for human intervention. While this may seem like a distant prospect, the rapid pace of AI development suggests that it may be closer than we think.

Moreover, as AI becomes more integrated into the banking industry, ethical considerations will become increasingly important. Banks will need to ensure that their AI systems are transparent, fair, and accountable, particularly when it comes to decision-making processes that affect clients. This will require ongoing collaboration between banks, regulators, and AI developers to establish clear guidelines and best practices for the responsible use of AI in banking.

The Digital Banking Revolution

AI is poised to reshape the retail banking industry in profound ways. From enhancing client experiences and streamlining operations to driving innovation in financial products and improving risk management, AI offers tremendous potential for banks that are willing to embrace it. However, as with any transformative technology, the adoption of AI also presents challenges, particularly in terms of ethics and compliance. As we move forward, it will be essential for banks to navigate these challenges carefully, ensuring that they leverage AI to deliver better services to their clients while maintaining the highest standards of integrity and trust.

In conclusion, AI is not just a tool for improving banking processes; it is a catalyst for a new era of retail banking, one that is more efficient, personalized, and inclusive. As leaders in the industry, it is our responsibility to harness the power of AI to drive this transformation, ensuring that our banks remain at the forefront of innovation and continue to meet the evolving needs of our clients in the years to come.

About the author

Luigi Wewege is President of Caye International Bank, awarded as one of the leading banks in the Caribbean and Central America. During his tenure at the bank, Luigi has been recognized for his turnaround efforts at Caye, growing it into the largest international bank in Belize. He is a regular speaker and contributor for several media publications. He is an accomplished multi-publication author, including The Digital Banking Revolution (now in its third edition). Wewege has co-authored economic research presented before the United States Congress and has been published in The Journal of Applied Finance & Banking. Outside of the bank, Luigi serves as an Instructor for the FinTech School in California and sits on multiple international advisory boards. Wewege earned an MBA in International Business from the MIB Trieste School of Management in Italy and a Bachelor’s Degree in Business with honors from the University of Missouri-St. Louis with a triple major in Finance, International Business, and Management.

This content is provided by an external author without editing by Finextra. It expresses the views and opinions of the author.

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