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Timing matters when it comes to accepting extraordinary claims..
Posted September 24, 2023 | Reviewed by Devon Frye
It may seem counterintuitive, but being correct in the long run is not the only consideration when it comes to extraordinary claims. It’s a detail often missed, but when one decides to accept or believe something matters—even if it eventually proves true.
This is important to recognize because embracing a strong belief in the right thing at the wrong time is a deceptive victory. It can encourage overconfidence in unreliable hunches and obscure flawed and dangerous thinking processes, all of which are likely to create problems throughout life.
Consider the factor of timing regarding UFOs. Anyone who “knows” today that some of them are extraterrestrial visitors has had their mind probed and abducted by an irrational belief because there is nothing close to credible confirmation for it. But what if aliens were to land on the rooftop of the United Nations building tomorrow and confess that they have been buzzing us for decades?
UFO believers would say, “told you so,” and deservedly so. But their prior position still would have been the result of extraordinarily poor thinking skills. And those skills won’t improve without a personal reckoning that includes acknowledging the significance of timing and a new commitment to thinking before believing.
It would be no different if Bigfoot were captured or a quirk of quantum physics proved the claims of homeopathy. Feelings of vindication aside, the unjustified embrace of an extremely dubious position that later turns out to be correct is not much more impressive than that of a broken clock being precisely accurate twice per day. A supervolcano might choke out civilization next year, but it wouldn’t mean the guy on a street corner yelling, “The end is near,” knew what he was talking about.
Some will argue that being proven right over time is enough, regardless of how unjustified the conclusion or belief once was. But this ignores the dangers of habitual sloppy thinking. If skepticism and quality of evidence are unimportant for one claim, then what is the standard for others? If one believes the Apollo Moon landings were faked, why not trust a chiropractor to treat a serious health issue? If reflexology is valid, why not Assyrian haruspicy, too? Where does it end? Sadly, of course, there is no end for some who seem to live almost entirely in a state of cognitive chaos.
To help premature believers, advocates of critical thinking might add the role of timing to their list of essential talking points. I consistently emphasize to others that the safer and more efficient way to mentally navigate the world is to consistently side with the best knowledge currently available—and be prepared to change course the moment new evidence demands it. I also make a point to concede that a given extraordinary and unlikely claim could be true, but quickly add that it doesn’t matter if currently there are no good reasons to believe it.
I understand that this burden of waiting for sufficient evidence can be inconvenient or uncomfortable, but it is crucial when it comes to important and unusual claims. There are exceptions, of course. Sometimes the stakes are high, there is legitimate urgency, and a hunch is all you have. For example, if I’m walking in a dark alley and someone in the shadows appears to be waving a knife and seems to be whispering something about my wallet, I’m running and not hanging around for scientific confirmation. In most cases, however, we have the luxury of waiting to see if good evidence ever arrives.
Drawing attention to this timing component of critical thinking is not a blanket rejection of fringe ideas. It is important to consider unlikely things and maintain appropriate humility before strange possibilities. The core power and most exciting aspect of science is not what we know now, but what we might learn next. A nagging intuition , compelling flash of insight, or gut feeling can be a fruitful starting point toward spectacular discovery.
But the hunch itself is not enough, and certainly should not be the endpoint. For example, my love of science fiction and the compressed version of the Drake Equation that lives in my head biases me with a strong inclination to think that we are not alone in a universe with this much time, space, matter, and energy. But until SETI holds the greatest press conference in history, it would be an appalling breach of reason if I were to take any stance other than “I don’t know.” The critical-thinking clock is clear on this. It’s too early to be sure.
An important technical point is that waiting for sufficient evidence is not an absolute denial of the claim. Neither is it a sign of being closed-minded, the standard cheap shot lobbed at critical thinkers. I suppose it can feel like a contradiction, but good thinking demands that we c onsider anything and doubt everything .
The late astronomer Carl Sagan mentioned this in his book The Demon Haunted World : “As I’ve tried to stress , at the heart of science is an essential balance between two seemingly contradictory attitudes—an openness to new ideas, no matter how bizarre or counterintuitive, and the most ruthlessly skeptical scrutiny of all ideas, old and new. This is how deep truths are winnowed from deep nonsense.”
I have learned from experience that openly noting the possibility of improbable things can aid communication between believer and skeptic. I readily admit that giant primates and interstellar visitors are not impossible, only that declaring them to be real phenomena right now is a problem. It demonstrates the same kind of muddled judgment that leads people into dangerous medical quackery, financial scams, predatory organizations, and destructive political loyalties.
The best we can do is strive to be correct according to the best evidence available now . Mind the clock and keep steering toward the best current version of reality. Take positions that are most reasonable today . We can always change our minds tomorrow if the aliens land and say hello.
Guy P. Harrison is the author of Think: Why You Should Question Everything.
Sticking up for yourself is no easy task. But there are concrete skills you can use to hone your assertiveness and advocate for yourself.
BLACKSTONE — A two-year investigation into fiscal irregularities relating to the Blackstone Council on Aging and its financial partner, Friends of the Blackstone Council on Aging, by the state inspector general resulted in stern advice to the town to institute fiscal oversight of the agency and ensure there is no overlap between a municipal employee and officers of town-affiliated charitable organizations.
In a letter issued to Blackstone Town Administrator Chad Lovett and new Friends President Judith Decasse, Inspector General Jeffrey Shapiro outlined the course of the investigation into the former director of the Council on Aging, Laurie Keefe, and her relationship with the Friends.
The investigation centered on the possible abuse of Keefe’s public position.
Keefe, who now serves as executive director of the Millbury Council on Aging, worked for Blackstone between 2012 and 2021. She left the position to work as the community health coordinator for Webster from October 2021 through July 2022.
Calls to Keefe were not immediately returned.
Lovett issued a written statement: "The Town has received the Inspector General report and we are reviewing it with Town Counsel. The Town will take action consistent with the requests in the report."
Shapiro probed the financial records of the Friends of Blackstone CoA, a 501(c)(3) tax exempt organization, which he found to be “poor” at best, lacking bank records and invoices for expenditures made over the course of Keefe’s tenure as director of the Council on Aging.
The organization lost its tax-exempt status for nine years from 2013 to 2023 for failing to file the required paperwork to maintain its status with the IRS. Paperwork filed with the IRS, form 990-series, for 2012 and 2013 list Nancy Davidson as the president of the organization. However, similar forms were lacking from 2014 through 2023. The latest filing lists Decasse as the president of the Friends.
In his letter Shapiro indicated that former and current municipal employees said Keefe had served as the president or as an executive officer of the charitable organization for a period that coincided with her municipal employment. Keefe denied being the president or an officer of the Friends.
However, in his letter, Shapiro suggests that “at no time should the identity of officers of a 501(c)(3) organization such as the Friends (FBCoA) be ambiguous.”
Bank records spanning the period between May 2015 and December 2018 revealed frequent ATM withdrawals totaling $5,230. Two that totaled $310 were recorded as being made at Twin River Casino. Records also indicated purchases at CVS and through Amazon totaling $1,749.23.
In her interview with Shapiro, Keefe indicated that she had been entrusted to make purchases for the Senior Center with cash and with checks written to cash. She also said she had managed “some FBCoA funds as the director of the Council on Aging.”
The former director also told Shapiro that the Senior Center had organized a trip to the casino. However, those affirmations were countered by individuals with knowledge of the Friends financial activity, who told Shapiro that “no organized trip for seniors to Twin River Casino ever occurred.”
The Friends serves as the fundraising arm of the community’s senior center, supplementing the organization’s municipal budget. The funds, according to Shapiro, must be kept separate, with no bleeding from the private account into those coffers filled by the municipal government.
Interviews with Friends members, organization officers and former municipal employees indicated that the bank account should have held close to $12,000 when the new director, Karen Testa, stepped into the position, according to the state report. However, the account, inactive since December 2018, held $787.16 at that time.
Testa, who was hired in 2022, had worked as the director of the Salvatore Mancini Resource & Activity Center in North Providence, Rhode Island, for decades. She left the position under a cloud, battling the town over the center’s finances. In published reports in 2022, the Blackstone selectmen indicated they were aware of the issues and defended her hiring.
Shapiro’s investigation into fiscal irregularities in Blackstone is not the first.
In 2015, Daniel Keefe, Laurie Keefe’s husband, asked the State Ethics Commission for advice concerning the ethics of his position on the Board of Selectmen at the same time that his wife was employed by the municipality. The state advised him to recuse himself from any issues dealing with the Council on Aging and its budget and expenditures. The advice from the commission suggested that even discussion of financial issues pertaining to Laurie Keefe’s employment would be a conflict of interest.
In 2020, the municipality opted to use a portion of its CARES Act funds to compensate employees who had worked in person during the COVID-19 lockdown and increase salaries after budget cuts and consolidations were put into effect during the period.
According to the State Ethics Commission website, former Town Administrator Daniel Keyes proposed bonuses to employees not to exceed $2,000 and salary increases up to $2,000. On July 1, 2020, Daniel Keefe met with Keyes and another select board member to suggest increasing both the bonuses and the raises. If approved, Laurie Keefe would have been paid a stipend of $2,500 and would have earned an additional $6,000 a year, a jump up from the $4,000 in combined bonus and Keyes had allocated.
An investigation into the matter resulted in a report that concluded Daniel Keefe violated conflict-of-interest rules “against self-dealing by acting on a matter in which his spouse had a financial interested.” The Ethics Commission issued a letter of reprimand to Daniel Keefe.
Currently Vice Chair of the Board of Selectmen, Daniel Keefe agreed to pay a $4,500 civilian penalty.
In his letter to the current municipal administrator, Shapiro found that the Friends was “too closely intertwined with the Council on Aging.” He found the situation violated the state employee conflict-of-interest law as well as laws that govern charitable organizations.
Shapiro listed several measures the administration should implement to increase oversight of the agency, strengthen internal control measures and prevent the misspending of funds. He gave the municipality 60 days to respond to the suggestions in writing to report their progress or alternative steps being taken including:
Shapiro also had suggestions for the community’s 501(c)(3) organizations with transparency being key, including:
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February 2 through march 22, 2023.
Ora Lerman. I Gave You My Song . Hand-ground oil on canvas. 1996-1997.
During her shortened lifetime, Ora Lerman documented her thought-journey as an artist. At the time of her death, she was painting a vibrant series retelling Aesop’s Fables, each translated in her mind’s eye as an exposition on the purpose of art and why artists create. In the series Art Not Food , she explored both ideas in studies comprising sketches, charcoals, watercolors, sculpture, and photographs. The exhibition focuses on the mind of an artist and her process -- thinking critically and creatively as she re-charged old fables as contemporary discourse on the necessity of art and the artist’s obligation to create.
Special Events: Friday, February 2, 2024. Curators’ Lecture: Brennan 228. 5:00 to 6:00 p.m. Public Reception: Hyland 407. 6:00 to 8:00 p.m.
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IMAGES
COMMENTS
Unsurprisingly, there has been a decline in people's ability to think deeply and reflectively in the past few years. One study, which focused on Millennial and Gen Z workers in the U.S., U.K ...
1. Difficulty in Decision-Making. Difficulty in Decision-Making. One of the biggest disadvantages of critical thinking is that it can be difficult to make decisions. Because critical thinkers are constantly analyzing and evaluating data to draw conclusions, this can be a time-consuming process.
According to the University of the People in California, having critical thinking skills is important because they are [ 1 ]: Universal. Crucial for the economy. Essential for improving language and presentation skills. Very helpful in promoting creativity. Important for self-reflection.
1) Fear. Fear is the number one reason that people avoid critical thinking. Fear prevents people from seeing things clearly and accepting conclusions without bias. If you are scared by the possibility of seeing something that contradicts what you think or believe, then you will avoid thinking critically. This fear makes it really hard to have ...
Critical thinking is the ability to effectively analyze information and form a judgment. To think critically, you must be aware of your own biases and assumptions when encountering information, and apply consistent standards when evaluating sources. Critical thinking skills help you to: Identify credible sources. Evaluate and respond to arguments.
Critically thinking about the effects of increasing information. What the reader postulated as a potential cause for all of this was that people are perhaps becoming less and less able to filter ...
In our view, the 7 most common and harmful critical thinking barriers to actively overcome are: Although egocentric behaviors are less prominent in adulthood, overcoming egocentrism can be a lifelong process. Egocentric thinking is a natural tendency to view everything in relation to oneself. This type of thinking leads to the inability to ...
Critical thinking is a widely accepted educational goal. Its definition is contested, but the competing definitions can be understood as differing conceptions of the same basic concept: careful thinking directed to a goal. ... , poor observation conditions, and the like. It helps as well to be skilled at taking steps to make one's observation ...
It is reasoning based on what we have learned through careful analysis, evaluation, explanation, and self-correction. This is the system which values intellectual honesty, analytically anticipating what happens next, maturity of judgment, fair-mindedness, elimination of biases, and truth-seeking.
Key Takeaways. Researchers propose six levels of critical thinkers: Unreflective thinkers, Challenged thinkers, Beginning thinkers, Practicing thinkers, Advanced thinkers, and Master thinkers. The ...
Critical thinking is an essential skill in our information-overloaded world, where figuring out what is fact and fiction has become increasingly challenging. But why is critical thinking essential? Put, critical thinking empowers us to make better decisions, challenge and validate our beliefs and assumptions, and understand and interact with ...
Indeed, a young adult whose brain has been "wired" to be innovative, think critically, and problem-solve is at a tremendous competitive advantage in today's increasingly complex and ...
6. Neglecting Creative Thinking. Poor critical thinking examples can also include neglecting to come up with creative ideas or solutions. It's great to be able to analyze a situation and make decisions based on facts, but sometimes it's just as important to challenge the status quo and come up with new, innovative solutions.
Critical thinking skills are an important tool, especially when it comes to personal beliefs and academics. When applied, critical thinking is a powerful defense against ideas and opinions that are potentially harmful or blatantly wrong. Unfortunately, not everyone possesses this ability, although it can be taught. ...
Poor critical thinking leads to poor arguments. For these reasons, argumentative prose imposes a heavy cognitive load on the reader. Students are obliged to work hard to discover how an argument works before they can even begin to critique it. This is especially difficult for those who have reading difficulties such as dyslexia.
Critical Thinking. Critical Thinking is the process of using and assessing reasons to evaluate statements, assumptions, and arguments in ordinary situations. ... Detecting Poor Reasoning. Our attempts at thinking critically often go wrong, whether we are formulating our own arguments or evaluating the arguments of others. Sometimes it is in our ...
Critical thinking is the analysis of available facts, evidence, observations, ... Conversely, statements reflecting poor critical thinking may be labeled as "Sticking to prejudice or assumptions" or "Squashing attempts to bring in outside knowledge". The frequency of these codes in CMC and face-to-face discourse can be compared to draw ...
Critical thinkers seek to improve thinking, in three interrelated phases. They analyze thinking. They assess thinking. And they up-grade thinking (as a result). Creative thinking is the work of the third phase, that of replacing weak thinking with strong thinking, or strong thinking with stronger thinking.
A very high majority of people surveyed (94 percent) believe that critical thinking is "extremely" or "very important.". But they generally (86 percent) find those skills lacking in the public at large. Indeed, 60 percent of the respondents reported not having studied critical thinking in school.
Critical thinking deficiencies can significantly impact an individual's ability to make sound judgments and decisions. Individuals may rely on biases, emotions, or limited information, resulting in poor choices, flawed reasoning, and increased personal risks Mitigating the Risks. 3.1 Promoting Critical Thinking Education and Training:
University students of all disciplines are expected to display critical thinking. Critical thinking may, however, be impeded by psychological and sociological factors such as: belief and confirmation biases, framing, social pressure to conform and poor assessment of probability and risk.
Critical Thinking For Complex Issues is your guide to cutting through the noise and discovering the truth. Learn how to spot logical fallacies, overcome confirmation bias, and analyze arguments objectively. Case studies and examples throughout show you how to apply these powerful skills in real life.
When we believe is a crucial component of critical thinking because it reveals much about how we think. Source: Guy P. Harrison. It may seem counterintuitive, but being correct in the long run is ...
Shapiro probed the financial records of the Friends of Blackstone CoA, a 501(c)(3) tax exempt organization, which he found to be "poor" at best, lacking bank records and invoices for ...
The exhibition focuses on the mind of an artist and her process -- thinking critically and creatively as she re-charged old fables as contemporary discourse on the necessity of art and the artist's obligation to create. Special Events: Friday, February 2, 2024.