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Emerging market challenges

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Subscribe to the economic studies bulletin, viral acharya , viral acharya c.v. starr professor of economics - new york university, stern school of business carlos carvalho , carlos carvalho head of research - kapitalo investimentos, faculty - puc-rio fernanda nechio , and fernanda nechio vice president - federal reserve bank of san francisco eswar prasad eswar prasad senior fellow - global economy and development.

March 29, 2023

The papers summarized here are part of the Spring 2023 edition of the Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (BPEA) , the leading conference series and journal in economics for timely, cutting-edge research about real-world policy issues. The conference drafts of these papers were presented at the Spring 2023 BPEA Conference (recordings and slides are available via the link). The final versions were published in the Spring 2023 issue by Johns Hopkins University Press. Submit a proposal to present at a future BPEA conference  here .

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Economists explored challenges and opportunities confronting three important emerging market economies—India, Brazil, and China—in papers prepared for a panel discussion at the Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (BPEA) conference on March 30.

India at 75: Replete with Contradictions, Brimming with Opportunities, Saddled with Challenges

Viral Acharya of New York University writes that India could potentially become “the next game in town” as international manufacturers adopt a “China Plus One” strategy of diversifying operations beyond China. But, to do so, it must focus on developing and maintaining sound policies, he writes.

India has experienced a K-shaped recovery since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic three years ago: Urban India has recovered but rural India lags behind, Acharya writes. He notes that, despite a booming stock market, India’s level of gross domestic product remains 6% lower than implied by its pre-pandemic trend.

“Much is at stake, for India and the world.”

However, India’s advantages include a strong interest in entrepreneurship among top university students, a healthy banking system, and what is considered the best “digital plumbing” in the world, he writes. To capitalize on its advantages, Acharya recommends that India focus on reforms in five areas:

• Increasing its share of global goods trade by reducing its “way too high and protectionist” tariffs, perhaps through a calibrated three-year plan.
• Dismantling its competition-stifling industrial conglomerates through trust busting or at least reducing their market power through legal and regulatory changes that make it economically unattractive for them to remain large.
• Ensuring India’s bankruptcy code can handle large conglomerate bankruptcies by requiring them to prepare “living wills” to help plan their resolution and, independently, speeding up the 18- to 24-month time it takes to resolve defaulted companies.
• Restoring macroeconomic balance by recommitting to reducing its budget deficits and by raising interest rates further to reduce inflation to the Central Bank of India’s 4% target.
• Addressing skills and education gaps by, for example, setting up public charter schools to provide high-quality STEM (science, technology, engineering, and mathematics) education and by giving corporations incentives to bring more women into the labor force.

“Much is at stake, for India and the world,” Acharya writes. “It would be nice if India can get it right in the coming decade.”

Challenges to Disinflation: The Brazilian Experience

Carlos Carvalho of Kapitalo Investimentos and PUC-Rio and Fernanda Nechio of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco write that two previous bouts of above-target inflation in Brazil suggest it could be economically costly for the country to bring its post-COVID-19 inflation down to the central bank’s target.

Brazil’s central bank adopted an inflation target in 1999 and confronted significantly above-target inflation from 2002 until 2005 and again in 2015 and 2016. In both cases, fiscal policy concerns were high and expectations for future inflation became unanchored from the target, the authors write. The central bank had to raise interest rates significantly to bring inflation down and restore its credibility—but both times at the cost of a recession, they write.

In response to the shutdowns and economic hardship created by the pandemic, Brazil, like many other countries, cut interest rates and quickly ramped up government programs to support households and businesses, the authors note. But, as in many other countries, fiscal and monetary stimulus, among other factors, contributed to a sharp increase in Brazil’s inflation since 2021. Expectations for future inflation became unanchored around September 2021 and, according to the authors, have slipped further since the presidential election in October 2022 and promises of considerable fiscal expansion.

“The combination of fiscal concerns and unanchored expectations in a high-inflation environment are all too familiar for Brazil,” the authors write. “The similarities between the two previous episodes suggest the path ahead for disinflation will be extremely challenging, unless policies change direction.”

They note that Brazil’s experience could offer lessons for other countries, perhaps even advanced-economy countries such as the United States and the United Kingdom, which also are experiencing above-target inflation. They note that even for those economies, policy credibility may be challenged.

Has China’s Growth Gone from Miracle to Malady?

Eswar Prasad of Cornell University and The Brookings Institution writes that China could continue to defy long-standing predictions of economic collapse if its leaders succeed in reforming its institutional framework, improving productivity, and strengthening its financial system.

China’s growth over the past three decades has been remarkable, Prasad writes. Its gross domestic product in 2022 was 73% of the United States’s gross domestic product, more than 10 times the 7% ratio in 1990. He discusses the sources of China’s growth and its vulnerabilities. He then highlights areas where reforms are needed for China to continue growing, albeit more moderately than earlier in its long expansion.

“The underpinnings of China’s growth seem fragile.”

According to Prasad, China’s vulnerabilities include a weak financial and institutional framework, a bloated state sector, and an authoritarian government. Nevertheless, through the years the government has maneuvered the economy around various “plausible doomsday scenarios,” he writes.

To maintain economic progress, China should better allocate resources within its economy to its most dynamic parts (the services sector and small- and medium-sized enterprises), Prasad writes. That requires fixing China’s banking system and financial markets and tightening regulation. China’s banks must remove bad loans to state enterprises from their balance sheets. And better corporate governance and accounting standards are needed to provide stock and bond investors with information about Chinese companies.

“The underpinnings of China’s growth seem fragile,” Prasad writes. “…Things that must end do often end suddenly and in unpredictable ways. Yet, if the government plays its cards right, one could equally well envision a more benign future for the Chinese economy.”

Acharya, Viral V. 2023. “India at 75: Replete with Contradictions, Brimming with Opportunities, Saddled with Challenges.” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity.  Spring. 185-215.

Carvalho, Carlos and Fernanda Nechio. 2023. “Challenges to Disinflation: The Brazilian Experience.” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity.  Spring. 217-241.

Prasad, Eswar. 2023. “Has China’s Growth Gone from Miracle to Malady?” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity.  Spring. 243-270.

Rogoff, Kenneth. 2023. “Comment on ‘Panel on Emerging Market Challenges.’”  Brookings Papers on Economic Activity.  Spring. 271-282.

Viral V. Acharya was deputy governor of the Reserve Bank of India from January 2017 to July 2019. The author did not receive financial support from any firm or person for this paper or from any firm or person with a financial or political interest in this paper. The author is not currently an officer, director, or board member of any organization with a financial or political interest in this paper.

Fernanda Nechio was deputy governor at the Central Bank of Brazil between July 2019 and May 2021. Carlos Carvalho was deputy governor of the Central Bank of Brazil between July 2016 and September 2019. The authors did not receive financial support from any firm or person for this paper or from any firm or person with a financial or political interest in this paper. The authors are not currently an officer, director, or board member of any organization with a financial or political interest in this paper.

Eswar Prasad is the Tolani Senior Professor of Trade Policy and professor of economics at Cornell University, and a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. Brookings is financed through the support of a diverse array of foundations, corporations, governments, and individuals, as well as an endowment. A list of donors can be found in our annual reports published online here . The findings, interpretations, and conclusions in this paper are solely those of its author and are not influenced by any donation.

Papers prepared for this panel were guest-edited by Maurice Obstfeld.

David Skidmore authored the summary language for this paper. Chris Miller assisted with data visualization.

Emerging Markets & Developing Economies

Economic Studies

Brookings Papers on Economic Activity

Sope Williams, Landry Signé

August 7, 2024

Paul Muthaura, Oliver Glanvile

July 26, 2024

Chinasa T. Okolo, Landry Signé

July 24, 2024

Characteristics of Emerging Economies

Darden Case No. UVA-F-1453

26 Pages Posted: 30 May 2017

University of Virginia - Darden School of Business; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

Robert F. Bruner

University of virginia - darden school of business, robert m. conroy, richard hoyer-ellefsen.

Today, roughly 30 countries are classified as "emerging markets" by the World Bank. Investor interest in these markets has grown substantially over time. During the first half of the 1990s, privatization and economic liberalization that took place across emerging market countries substantially enlarged the set of emerging market securities available to foreign investors and thereby provided a strong and decisive impulse for portfolio investments in emerging markets. The purpose of this technical note is to describe some key characteristics of emerging capital markets and compare them with those of developed and less-developed or frontier markets. This technical note is the first of three notes on emerging markets. See also UVA-F-1454 and UVA-F-1455. Excerpt UVA-F-1453 Investing in Emerging Markets Technical Note Series No. 1 CHARACTERISTICS OF EMERGING MARKETS Today, roughly 30 countries are considered to be in transition to higher levels of economic development and have hence earned the title “emerging markets” from the International Finance Corporation (IFC) of The World Bank. Initially (in 1981) the IFC emerging market index included stocks of publicly traded companies from nine countries. By 2002, the total number of countries covered in the IFC emerging market indices had reached 33. Standard & Poor's acquired the IFC indices in January 2000, and they are now known as the S&P/IFC indices. Investor interest in emerging markets has grown over time. Before 1980, little capital flowed into these markets due to the lack of financial products and services available to foreign investors and the perceived high market risk and volatility. Beginning in 1981, private portfolio investment in the emerging markets began to grow. During the first half of the 1990s, the privatization and economic liberalization that took place across emerging market countries substantially enlarged the set of emerging market securities available to foreign investors, who thereby developed a strong and decisive interest in them for portfolio investments. Net portfolio inflows to emerging markets peaked in 1994 at $ 113 billion, only to decrease sharply in the following years, mainly due to the widespread financial turmoil that affected these markets (the “Tequila Effects,” kicked off by the devaluation of the Mexican peso). The purpose of this technical note is to describe some key characteristics of emerging capital markets and compare them with those of developed and less-developed, or frontier, markets. Although other emerging market indices are available (e.g., Morgan Stanley's Capital International [MSCI] index), the S&P/IFC cohort is used in this technical note, because it includes a broader set of countries than competing indices. S&P/IFC considers a market to be “emerging” if it meets at least one of the following criteria: 1. It is in a low- or middle-income country, as defined by the World Bank, and . . .

Keywords: emerging markets

Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation

Wei Li (Contact Author)

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Trade Policy Uncertainty, Financing Constraints, and Firm Innovation: Evidence from China

• Published: 12 August 2024

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• Shan Gao 1 &
• Zheng Li 2  

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In 2001, China’s accession to the World Trade Organization and the attainment of permanent Most Favored Nation (MFN) status from the USA significantly reduced external trade policy uncertainties for the country. Utilizing comprehensive data from 1998 to 2006, this paper employs a Difference-in-Differences (DID) regression approach to dissect the intricate relationship between trade policy uncertainties, financing constraints, and enterprise innovations. Our findings reveal that a notable decrease in trade policy uncertainties has considerably spurred innovation among Chinese enterprises, particularly for high-productivity firms and regions with advanced marketization. However, this effect is mitigated by financing constraints. The uniqueness of this paper lies in its detailed exploration of how trade policy uncertainties influence enterprise innovation through financing constraints. Specifically, the reduction in uncertainties boosts corporate profitability, fosters the growth of cluster commercial credit, and enhances credit resource allocation efficiency. Consequently, it alleviates financial pressures on enterprises, thereby facilitating innovation. While our data covers the period from 1998 to 2006, the insights remain relevant in the current global trade environment characterized by heightened uncertainties. Future research could validate these findings using updated data or investigate how emerging technologies like fintech and blockchain finance can alleviate financing constraints, thus aiding businesses in navigating trade policy uncertainties.

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Most-favored-nation treatment refers to the legal treatment provisions of trade treaties and agreements between countries. It is also known as “nondiscrimination treatment,” in which countries provide preferential benefits to each other, provide necessary convenience, and enjoy certain privileges in terms of import and export trade, taxation, navigation, etc. It usually refers to the preferential treatment, privileges, or immunities that the contracting parties give to each other in terms of trade, navigation, customs duties, civil legal status, etc., which are not lower than those currently or in the future to any third country.

The Smoot-Hawley tariff was a bill signed and promulgated by the then President of the United States, Hoover, in 1930. The bill raised the tariff of more than 20,000 goods imported by the United States from other countries to the highest level in history. At that time, the promulgation of the bill was opposed by a large number of scholars, and after the promulgation of the law, many countries also responded by imposing retaliatory tariff measures on the United States, which led to the rapid decline of global trade (the scale of world trade shrank by approximately 66% between 1929 and 1934), and became the catalyst of the Great Depression. With the establishment of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) and the continuous progress of trade liberalization, the United States began to impose the most-favored-nation tariff on the countries with normal trade relations, and the Smoot-Hawley tariff was also basically put on the shelf. At present, it is only imposed on a few countries such as North Korea.

In 1998, the United States Congress passed a bill to change the name of MFN treatment to “Normal Trade Relations.”.

The data were collated by the author.

HS code is the World Customs Organization on the classification of international trade commodity standard catalog, used to unify the national customs on the classification of commodity definition standards, HS code full name “International Convention on the Harmonization System of Commodity Names and Coding System” (abbreviated as the HS code). By means of the HS code, commodities can be classified and customs can determine the corresponding duties to be imposed on different commodities and the management measures to be taken. The HS8 generation refers to the 8-digit customs product code and the HS6 generation refers to the 6-digit customs code.

CIC refers to the China Industry Classification system. It is widely used in the collection of official statistical data on companies and organizations throughout Mainland China. As defined in Chinese national standard number “GB/T 4754,” the China Industry Classification system identifies 95 different industry categories. For more details, see http://www.stats.gov.cn/xxgk/tjbz/gjtjbz/201710/t20171017_1758922.html .

In fact, we could use tariff data for any year prior to 2001 since they would all be the same.

Feenstra et al. ( 2002 ) and others sorted out the Class I tariff (MFN tariff) and Class II tariff (nonnormal trade relations tariff) imposed by the United States on China from 1989 to 2001. Considering that the data window period of the industrial enterprise database used in this paper is 1998–2006, we choose the United States tariff level in 1997 and use the logarithm of the tariff difference in the later regression. Referring to Brandt et al. ( 2017 ), we compare the tariffs of the HS6 products to the industry level of the fourth national economy (CIC4) first and then carry out a simple average.

For more details, please see from World Integrated Trade Solution (WITS) | Data on Export, Import, Tariff, NTM (worldbank.org).

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This research has been granted by two programs of Fujian Provincial Social Science Foundation, which are “Research on the Mechanism and Path of Digital Technology Empowering the High Quality Development of Rural Characteristic Advantage Industries in Fujian Province” (Project No. FJ2023C044) and “Research on the Mechanism and Path of Digital Transformation of Fujian’s Manufacturing Industry Empowering Export Resilience” (Project No. FJ2023C043).

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Gao, S., Li, Z. Trade Policy Uncertainty, Financing Constraints, and Firm Innovation: Evidence from China. J Knowl Econ (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13132-024-02246-8

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Received : 04 January 2024

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Published : 12 August 2024

DOI : https://doi.org/10.1007/s13132-024-02246-8

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Interdependent influences of reverse logistics implementation barriers in the conditions of an emerging economy.

1. Introduction

2. research methodology, 2.1. reverse logistics implementation barriers.

2.2. The DEMATEL Method in Reverse Logistics Studies

2.3. development and collection of the survey questionnaire, 4. discussion, 5. conclusions.

• The most common mistakes in the implementation of reverse logistics in organizations and how they can be prevented.
• The employee competence and experience that is necessary to overcome barriers and how these contribute to the efficient and effective implementation and functioning of reverse logistics.
• The presence of a connection between individual reverse logistics activities, the criteria for selecting adequate options, and the influence on improving the organization’s performance.
• Comparisons and a better understanding of experts’ attitudes and opinions between developing and developed economies when overcoming reverse logistics implementation barriers.

Author Contributions

Data availability statement, conflicts of interest.

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Brkljač, N.; Delić, M.; Orošnjak, M.; Medić, N.; Rakić, S.; Popović, L. Interdependent Influences of Reverse Logistics Implementation Barriers in the Conditions of an Emerging Economy. Mathematics 2024 , 12 , 2508. https://doi.org/10.3390/math12162508

Brkljač N, Delić M, Orošnjak M, Medić N, Rakić S, Popović L. Interdependent Influences of Reverse Logistics Implementation Barriers in the Conditions of an Emerging Economy. Mathematics . 2024; 12(16):2508. https://doi.org/10.3390/math12162508

Brkljač, Nebojša, Milan Delić, Marko Orošnjak, Nenad Medić, Slavko Rakić, and Ljiljana Popović. 2024. "Interdependent Influences of Reverse Logistics Implementation Barriers in the Conditions of an Emerging Economy" Mathematics 12, no. 16: 2508. https://doi.org/10.3390/math12162508

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Attanasio et al., 2024: "Presidential Address: Economics and Measurement: New Measures to Model Decision Making"

EGC affiliate Orazio Attanasio and coauthors Ingvild Almås and Pamela Jervisin in Econometrica, July 2024.

Most empirical work in economics has considered only a narrow set of measures as meaningful and useful to characterize individual behavior, a restriction justified by the difficulties in collecting a wider set. However, this approach often forces the use of strong assumptions to estimate the parameters that inform individual behavior and identify causal links. In this paper, we argue that a more flexible and broader approach to measurement could be extremely useful and allow the estimation of richer and more realistic models that rest on weaker identifying assumptions. We argue that the design of measurement tools should interact with, and depend on, the models economists use. Measurement is not a substitute for rigorous theory, it is an important complement to it, and should be developed in parallel to it. We illustrate these arguments with a model of parental behavior estimated on pilot data that combines conventional measures with novel ones.

Almås, Ingvild, Orazio Attanasio, and Pamela Jervis. 2024. "Presidential Address: Economics and Measurement: New Measures to Model Decision Making." Econometrica, 92 (4): 947-78

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• Econometrica

Exchange Rate Models are Better than You Think, and Why They Didn't Work in the Old Days

Exchange-rate models fit very well for the U.S. dollar in the 21st century. A “standard” model that includes real interest rates and a measure of expected inflation for the U.S. and the foreign country, the U.S. comprehensive trade balance, and measures of global risk and liquidity demand is well-supported in the data for the U.S. against other G10 currencies. The monetary and non-monetary variables play equally important roles in explaining exchange rate movements. In the 1970s – early 1990s, the fit of the model was poor but the fit (as measured by t- and F-statistics, and R-squareds) has increased almost monotonically to the present day. We make the case that it is better monetary policy (inflation targeting) that has led to the improvement, as the scope for self-fulfilling expectations has disappeared. We provide a variety of evidence that links changes in monetary policy to the performance of the exchange-rate model.

The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research.

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About 400 Million People Worldwide Have Had Long Covid, Researchers Say

The condition has put significant strain on patients and society — at a global economic cost of about $1 trillion a year, a new report estimates.

By Pam Belluck

Pam Belluck has been reporting about long Covid since the condition first emerged.

About 400 million people worldwide have been afflicted with long Covid, according to a new report by scientists and other researchers who have studied the condition. The team estimated that the economic cost — from factors like health care services and patients unable to return to work — is about $1 trillion worldwide each year, or about 1 percent of the global economy.

The report, published Friday in the journal Nature Medicine, is an effort to summarize the knowledge about and effects of long Covid across the globe four years after it first emerged.

It also aims to “provide a road map for policy and research priorities,” said one author, Dr. Ziyad Al-Aly, the chief of research and development at the V.A. St. Louis Health Care System and a clinical epidemiologist at Washington University in St. Louis. He wrote the paper with several other leading long Covid researchers and three leaders of the Patient-Led Research Collaborative, an organization formed by long Covid patients who are also professional researchers.

Among the conclusions:

About 6 percent of adults globally have had long Covid.

The authors evaluated scores of studies and metrics to estimate that as of the end of 2023, about 6 percent of adults and about 1 percent of children — or about 400 million people — had ever had long Covid since the pandemic began. They said the estimate accounted for the fact that new cases slowed in 2022 and 2023 because of vaccines and the milder Omicron variant.

They suggested that the actual number might be higher because their estimate included only people who developed long Covid after they had symptoms during the infectious stage of the virus, and it did not include people who had more than one Covid infection.

Many people have not fully recovered.

The authors cited studies suggesting that only 7 percent to 10 percent of long Covid patients fully recovered two years after developing long Covid. They added that “some manifestations of long Covid, including heart disease, diabetes, myalgic encephalomyelitis and dysautonomia are chronic conditions that last a lifetime.”

The consequences are far-reaching, the authors wrote: “Long Covid drastically affects patients’ well-being and sense of self, as well as their ability to work, socialize, care for others, manage chores and engage in community activities — which also affects patients’ families, caregivers and their communities.”

The report cited estimates that between two million and four million adults were out of work because of long Covid in 2022 and that people with long Covid were 10 percent less likely to be employed than those who were never infected with the virus. Long Covid patients often have to reduce their work hours, and one in four limit activities outside work in order to continue working, the report said.

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